In a press release Carat, the leading global media network, today publishes its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2014 and 2015, with market optimism demonstrated through strong global and regional forecasts.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest forecast show overall global advertising revenues accelerating by +5.0% in 2014, an increase on the +4.8% predicted in March 2014, and reaffirming positivity for 2015 with year-on-year growth predicted at +5.0%.
From a regional perspective, Carat predicts further positive momentum in 2014 for North America and Western Europe, compared with figures announced in March 2014. The US continues to show strong on-going market growth, with levels of advertising spend in North America expected to exceed the pre-recession peak in 2007 for the first time by the end of 2014. Western Europe is predicted to see a return to positive growth of +2.7% after two consecutive years of declining advertising spend, driven by a strong UK advertising market forecast to grow by a robust +7.5% this year.
Whilst forecasts show a slight decline in growth when compared with predictions from March 2014, Asia Pacific and Latin America are still both forecast to outperform global predictions, with growth rates for 2014 of +5.4% and 12.1% respectively, and the only regions to see double digit growth in some markets. Carat’s data also highlights that the outlook for 2015 continues to be encouraging with all key markets forecast to return to positive growth.
By media, Digital outperforms previous predictions for 2014 with year-on-year growth forecast at +16.1%. Digital will also increase its total share of spend, reaching 20.5% in 2014 and 22.6% next year, when it will outpace the combined Magazines and Newspaper global share for the first time. Whilst the steady decline in Print* is expected to continue, all other mediums are predicted to achieve year-on-year growths of approximately 3%-5% in 2014 and 2015.
Commenting on the Carat Advertising Expenditure forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said:
“Carat’s latest advertising forecast gives us increased optimism for the outlook of global and regional advertising spend. With the global recession further behind us and a healthy trend of 5 per cent year-on-year global ad growth, there is positive momentum building across the industry.
“Whilst Digital continues to headline market trend discussions, the components within this dominant media now provide the interesting chapters, with the opportunities in mobile leading the debate. With changes and trends in consumer behaviour driving business opportunities, brands need to deliver innovative and integrated solutions to reap the rewards ahead.”
*Print: ‘Print’ is defined as the combined advertising spend of Magazines and Newspapers
Digital: ‘Digital Advertising’ or ‘Digital Media’ or ‘Digital’ includes advertising spend from Search, Display, Online Video, Social Media and Mobile.
Methodology: Carat’s advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data which is collated from around the Carat network and based on Carat’s local market expertise. We use a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 59 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium – Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures we convert the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.