The global advertising market is set to enjoy the same healthy rate of growth experienced in 2012 – which saw adspend boosted by the London Olympics and the US elections – reflecting the extent to which the advertising market is now stabilising.
According to the latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts from ZenithOptimedia, the global advertising market is on course to grow 3.5% in 2013, the same rate experienced last year, but without the boost of the quadrennial effect. This is the same growth rate we predicted in Q2 this year – and this is the first quarter since Q2 2012 when we have not downgraded our forecast for 2013 – underlining the stability we are now seeing in the global advertising market. Expectations for this year have finally levelled after a long period of slow erosion by bad economic news.
ZenithOptimedia expects stronger growth over the next two years – of 5.1% in 2014 and 5.9% in 2015 – primarily due to the European economy, currently acting as a brake on global ad growth, becoming healthier. The Eurozone came out of its 18-month recession in Q2 2013, and its economic recovery is expected to gather pace gradually over the next couple of years. The Eurozone ad market should follow suit. Eurozone adspend shrank 5.2% in 2012; we forecast a smaller decline in 2013 of 4.3%, followed by 0.7% growth in 2014 and 1.9% growth in 2015.
Despite these prospects for recovery, a steeper-than-expected decline in Eurozone adspend in the first half has weighed down our forecast for adspend growth in Mature Markets* this year, which we have reduced to 1.4% from 1.7% in June.
Steve King, ZenithOptimedia’s CEO, Worldwide, concludes that “… the stability of global ad spend growth this year… without Olympics and US elections… shows advertising recovery on track… promising stronger growth in 2014 and 2015… penetration of mobile handsets is playing a key role in driving advertising growth across the world… “
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